Analysis: Economy would dodge bullet for now under fiscal deal

U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (C) departs the senate floor with an aide after a senate vote in the early morning hours at the U.S. Capitol in Washington January 1, 2013.

Credit: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst

By Jason Lange

WASHINGTON | Tue Jan 1, 2013 2:52am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A deal worked out by U.S. Senate leaders to avoid the "fiscal cliff," was far from any "grand bargain" of deficit reduction measures.

But if approved by the U.S. House of Representatives, it could help the country steer clear of recession, although enough austerity would remain in place to likely keep the economy growing at a lackluster pace.

The Senate approved a last-minute deal early Tuesday morning to scale back $600 billion in scheduled tax hikes and government spending cuts that economists widely agree would tip the economy into recession.

The deal would hike taxes permanently for household incomes over $450,000 a year, but keep existing lower rates in force for everyone else.

It would make permanent the alternative minimum tax "patch" that was set to expire, protecting middle-income Americans from being taxed as if they were rich.

Scheduled cuts in defense and non-defense spending were simply postponed for two months.

Economists said that if the emerging package were to become law, it would represent at least a temporary reprieve for the economy. "This keeps us out of recession for now," said Menzie Chinn, an economist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

The contours of the deal suggest that roughly one-third of the scheduled fiscal tightening could still take place, said Brett Ryan, an economist at Deutsche Bank in New York.

That is in line with what many financial firms on Wall Street and around the world have been expecting, suggesting forecasts for economic growth of around 1.9 percent for 2013 would likely hold.

At midnight Monday, low tax rates enacted under then-President George W. Bush in 2001 and 2003 expired. If the House agrees with the Senate - and there remained considerable doubt on that score - the new rates would be extended retroactively.

Otherwise, together with other planned tax hikes, the average household would pay an estimated $3,500 more in taxes, according to the Tax Policy Center, a Washington think tank. Budget experts expect the economy would take a hit as families cut back on spending.

Provisions in the Senate bill would avoid scheduled cuts to jobless benefits and to payments to doctors under a federal health insurance program.

AUSTERITY'S BITE

Like the consensus of economists from Wall Street and beyond, Deutsche Bank has been forecasting enough fiscal drag to hold back growth to roughly 1.9 percent in 2013. Ryan said the details of the deal appeared to support that forecast.

That would be much better than the 0.5 percent contraction predicted by the Congressional Budget Office if the entirety of the fiscal cliff took hold, but it would fall short of what is needed to quickly heal the labor market, which is still smarting from the 2007-09 recession.

"We continue to anticipate a significant economic slowdown at the start of the year in response to fiscal drag and a contentious fiscal debate," economists at Nomura said in a research note.

In particular, analysts say financial markets are likely to remain on tenterhooks until Congress raises the nation's $16.4 trillion debt ceiling, which the U.S. Treasury confirmed had been reached on Monday.

While the Bush tax cuts would be made permanent for many Americans under the budget deal, a two-year-long payroll tax holiday enacted to give the economy an extra boost would expire. The Tax Policy Center estimates this could push the average household tax bill up by about $700 next year.

The suspension of spending cuts sets up a smaller fiscal cliff later in the year which still could be enough to send the economy into recession, said Chinn.

He warned that ongoing worries about the possibility of recession could keep businesses from investing, which would hinder economic growth.

"You retain the uncertainty," Chinn said.

(Reporting by Jason Lange; Editing by Eric Walsh)

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Housing, factory data point to momentum in economy

A U.S. flag decorates a for-sale sign at a home in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Washington, August 21, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON | Fri Dec 28, 2012 1:34pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Contracts for U.S. home resales hit a 2-1/2-year high in November and factory activity in the Midwest expanded this month, suggesting some strength in the economy despite the threat of tighter fiscal policy.

The National Association of Realtors said on Friday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed last month, increased 1.7 percent to 106.4 - the highest level since April 2010 when the home-buyer tax credit expired.

November marked the third straight month of gains for signed contracts, which become sales after a month or two, and followed a 5 percent increase in October.

A separate report showed the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago business barometer rose to 51.6 in December from 50.4 in November. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the regional economy. It was the second straight month of growth and was driven by a rebound in new orders.

The data suggested some of the growth momentum from the third quarter carried into the final three months of 2012, even as businesses and households braced for sharp cuts in government spending and higher taxes in the new year.

Data so far in the fourth quarter ranging from consumer spending, housing, employment and the various manufacturing indicators have been fairly upbeat.

"We don't see much evidence that the economy was slowing as we headed into the end of the year, but everything could change on January 1," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York.

There are fears that currently stalled budget talks in Washington will fail to steer clear of a $600 billion "fiscal cliff" of less government spending and higher taxes, which could tip the economy back into recession.

"There is nothing here to suggest that the economy has enough momentum to withstand the shock if we go over the fiscal-cliff with no quick return," said Ryding. "The good news right now is it looks like we could have the mid-twos kind of GDP (growth) for the fourth quarter."

STRENGTHENING HOUSING RECOVERY

The economy grew at a 3.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter. The latest Reuters survey of economists put fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth at a 1.2 percent rate, mostly because of superstorm Sandy, which struck the East Coast in late October and fiscal cliff-related cutbacks in business spending.

U.S. financial markets ignored the data as attention remained focused on the developments in Washington surrounding the fiscal cliff.

Stocks on Wall Street fell, putting the Standard & Poor's 500 index on track for a fifth straight day of declines. U.S. Treasury debt prices rose, while the dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies.

Though the employment gauge in the Chicago ISM survey fell to a three-year low in December, economists expected a rebound given the strength in new orders.

"The drop in employment reflects the weakness in new orders in November and to a lesser degree the fiscal cliff. With the bounce back in new orders, employment will also bounce back," said Eric Green, chief economist at TD Securities in New York.

The pending home sales report pointed to a strengthening in the housing market recovery. Contracts were up 9.8 percent in the 12 months through November.

The housing market has turned the corner after a dramatic collapse, which dragged the economy through its worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Home sales and prices are rising, encouraging builders to undertake new construction projects. Home resale contracts were up in three of the country's four regions. They were unchanged in the South.

"The housing revival seems to be happening in a way that puts some positive feedback loop, a virtuous cycle into the economy," said Jerry Webman, chief economist at OppenheimerFunds in New York.

(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Neil Stempleman)

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"Fiscal cliff" drag on economy less than feared so far

Women carry shopping bags through Times Square in New York, July 27, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Andrew Burton

By Jason Lange

WASHINGTON | Fri Dec 21, 2012 12:47pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy showed surprising signs of resilience in November despite the approach of the so-called fiscal cliff as consumer spending rose by the most in three years and a gauge of business investment jumped.

Consumer spending rose 0.6 percent when adjusted for inflation, while new factory orders for capital goods outside the defense and aerospace sectors - a proxy for business spending plans - jumped 2.7 percent, the Commerce Department said on Friday.

Economists had pinned earlier weakness in investment plans on worries lawmakers and the White House might fail to strike a deal to avoid the brunt of tax hikes and government spending cuts scheduled to begin in January.

They also worried consumers would hold back as the end-of-the-year deadline approached with both parties far apart on how to avoid the potential hit to the economy. But Friday's data suggested both consumers and businesses had mostly shrugged off the cliff, at least in November.

"It appears that the looming fiscal cliff hasn't been nearly as disruptive as we had feared," said Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.

Still, another report provided ample reason for caution as U.S. consumer sentiment slumped in December, with households apparently rattled by on-going negotiations to lessen the fiscal tightening that could easily trigger a recession next year.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final index of consumer sentiment in December tumbled more than expected to 72.9 from 82.7 a month before.

U.S. stocks fell sharply after a Republican proposal for averting the fiscal cliff was abandoned late on Thursday, eroding optimism that a deal could be reached quickly. At the same time, U.S. government debt prices rallied and the dollar gained ground as investors sought a safe haven.

Economists still expect economic growth to cool in the fourth quarter as companies slow the pace at which they have been re-stocking their shelves, but the data on Friday suggested consumers are offsetting some of that drag.

Consumer spending is on track to grow at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, faster than during the prior three months, said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.

Forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers raised its forecast for fourth-quarter economic growth by four tenths of a point to a 1.4 percent annual rate. In the third quarter, the economy expanded at a 3.1 percent rate.

"The economy is holding in here at the end of the year despite the concerns about the fiscal cliff," said Gary Thayer, an economic strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors in St. Louis.

WORRIES AHEAD

Those concerns are not going away.

In November, many analysts on Wall Street said they expected Washington would largely avert the fiscal cliff, and optimism had grown over the last week that a deal was within reach. Since Wednesday, however, negotiations have fallen into disarray.

If Congress and the White House do not reach a deal in time, taxes will go up for all Americans beginning in January and the government will cut spending on a host of programs. Running off the fiscal cliff would slash the nation's trillion-dollar budget deficit nearly in half in just one year.

The impact would only come gradually, but economists expect it would be enough to knock the country into recession in the first half of the year.

So far, uncertainty over the talks appears to have had only a limited impact on the economy.

New orders for durable goods, items meant to last three years or more, rose a greater-than-expected 0.7 percent in November due to gains in machinery, fabricated metal products, and computer and electronic products. Those increases were offset by a decline in volatile aircraft orders.

The report also showed a rise in shipments, brightening the prospects for fourth-quarter economic growth.

Shipments of non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, used to calculate equipment and software spending in the government's measures of gross domestic product, gained 1.8 percent, after rising by a softer 0.6 percent in October.

(Additional reporting by Ellen Freilich and Leah Schnurr in New York; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Tim Ahmann)

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Wall Street climbs on economy bets as it looks past "cliff"

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, December 18, 2012. Signs of compromise in U.S. talks to stop automatic tax hikes and spending cuts hurting the economy next year pushed world shares to their highest level since September on Tuesday and weakened investor appetite for safe-haven bonds and the dollar.

Credit: Reuters/Brendan McDermid

By Rodrigo Campos

NEW YORK | Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:36pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rallied on strong volume on Tuesday, capping off the S&P 500's best two-day run in a month, on confidence that a deal would be struck in Washington to avoid painful spending cuts and tax hikes that could hurt the economy.

Banks, energy and technology - sectors that would benefit during economic expansion - led gains as investors remain confident that lawmakers will come to an agreement to avoid the so-called "fiscal cliff" deadline at the end of the year.

The PHLX oil services sector index .OSX jumped 3.1 percent, with eight of its 15 components up 3 percent or more.

"The view is that the economy is getting better, and that is always good for energy demand," said Shawn Hackett, president at Hackett Financial Advisors in Boynton Beach, Florida.

Hackett said the United States would avoid "whatever the cliff means" for the economy, allowing investors to focus on growth.

President Barack Obama's most recent offer to Republicans in the ongoing budget talks makes concessions on taxes and social programs spending. House Speaker John Boehner said the offer is "not there yet," though he remains hopeful about an agreement. Senate Democrats, however, have expressed concern about cuts to Social Security.

Financial stocks shot higher, as traders bet on a greater demand for loans and a steepening of the yield curve. U.S. government debt sold off Tuesday, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note's yield briefly hitting its highest since late October.

The S&P financial sector .GSPF added 1.5 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 115.57 points, or 0.87 percent, to 13,350.96 at the close. The S&P 500 .SPX gained 16.43 points, or 1.15 percent, to 1,446.79. The Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 43.93 points, or 1.46 percent, to 3,054.53.

It was the S&P 500's first back-to-back gain of more than 1 percent since late July.

Stocks of smaller companies outperformed the broader market, with the Russell 2000 .RUT up 1.5 percent.

Shares of firearm makers sank in the aftermath of a school shooting in Newtown, Connecticut, on Friday that killed 20 young children and six adults.

Smith and Wesson (SWHC.O) fell 10 percent to $7.79 on its largest-ever daily volume, though it was still up about 77 percent so far this year. Sturm Ruger and Co (RGR.N) slid 7.7 percent Tuesday to $40.60.

Private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management said it would sell gunmaker Freedom Group, whose Bushmaster AR-15 rifle was used in the Connecticut massacre. Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS.N) suspended the sale of certain semi-automatic rifles in its stores nationwide.

Technology shares rose, led by Apple (AAPL.O), up 2.9 percent at $533.90 after losing nearly 13 percent in the last two weeks. The S&P Information Technology Index .GSPT rose 1.7 percent.

Arbitron Inc (ARB.N) surged 23.6 percent to $47.03 after Nielsen Holdings NV (NLSN.N) agreed to buy the media and marketing research firm in a deal worth $1.26 billion. Nielsen rose 4.4 percent to $30.92.

About 7.4 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, more than the daily average so far this year of about 6.5 billion shares.

On the NYSE, roughly 14 issues rose for every five that fell, while on the Nasdaq, advancers outnumbered decliners by a ratio of about 5 to 2.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Jan Paschal)

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